Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 150 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA TO 45 MILES NORTH OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13...
DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. 30/06Z JAN
SOUNDING IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INFLOW AIR MASS TO THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...FEATURING A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 14 TORNADO AL TN 300750Z - 301600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45W BHM/BIRMINGHAM AL/ - 45N CSV/CROSSVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /32W VUZ - 53WSW LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 33568840 36598598 36598418 33568666
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 14 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 14
VALID 301525Z - 301600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW BHM TO
20 W GAD TO 40 WNW RMG.
WW 14 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 301600Z.
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-049-073-095-301600-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT DEKALB JEFFERSON
MARSHALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 14
VALID 301430Z - 301540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BHM TO
30 E HSV TO 20 SE CSV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 94
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-049-063-071-073-095-119-125-301540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT DEKALB GREENE
JACKSON JEFFERSON MARSHALL
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 14
VALID 301350Z - 301440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE TCL
TO 10 SW CSV TO 45 NNW TYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 94.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-043-049-063-071-073-095-119-125-301440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CULLMAN DEKALB
GREENE JACKSON JEFFERSON
MARSHALL SUMTER TUSCALOOSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 14
VALID 301300Z - 301340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW TCL
TO 45 SW LOZ.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-043-049-057-063-071-073-089-095-103-119-125-127-133-
301340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE GREENE JACKSON
JEFFERSON MADISON MARSHALL
MORGAN SUMTER TUSCALOOSA
WALKER WINSTON
$$
TNC031-035-049-051-061-141-175-177-185-301340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE CUMBERLAND FENTRESS
FRANKLIN GRUNDY PUTNAM
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 14
VALID 301150Z - 301240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MSL
TO 15 SE MSL TO 35 NE MSL TO 50 SSW BNA TO 30 SE BNA TO 40 WNW
CSV TO 50 NNW CSV.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-043-049-057-063-071-073-075-079-083-089-093-095-103-107-
119-125-127-133-301240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CULLMAN DEKALB
FAYETTE GREENE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
TNC003-015-031-035-041-049-051-055-061-087-103-127-133-137-141-
175-177-185-301240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS
FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY
JACKSON LINCOLN MOORE
OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 14
VALID 301040Z - 301140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 14
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-033-043-049-057-059-063-071-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-
095-103-107-119-125-127-133-301140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT COLBERT CULLMAN
DEKALB FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-055-061-087-103-111-117-127-
133-137-141-149-159-169-175-177-185-189-301140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CLAY
COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB
FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES
GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN
MACON MARSHALL MOORE
OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM
RUTHERFORD SMITH TROUSDALE
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.